Ruling party's hardliners seek to win poll at any cost

• Published: 9/03/2012 at 02:00 AM  ... 

Myanmar's political future may be at stake in the forthcoming by-elections scheduled for April 1, although only some 50 seats are being contested.

Unlike the polls in November 2010 _ the first national elections in 20 years _ the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) and its charismatic leader Aung San Suu Kyi are running for office this time.

With the by-elections only three weeks away, campaigning is in full swing. But the key question remains: will the vote be free and fair? There are some strong indications that this might not be the case. A confidential strategy paper written within the ruling party (and seen by this writer) outlines plans to win all 48 seats by any means possible.

Much depends on these elections being plausible. The European Union and the United States are prepared to roll back sanctions if the by-elections meet international standards.

While there is no doubt that the country's top leaders _ President Thein Sein and House Speaker Shwe Mann _ are committed to making these elections free, fair and legitimate, many members of the ruling Union Solidarity and Development (USDP) Party are intent on winning by hook or by crook.

Last November the president, the lower house speaker and chairman Tin Aye of the Election Commission, met and agreed that the forthcoming by-elections would be free and fair even if it meant that the ruling party took a drubbing. This was even before Mrs Suu Kyi and the NLD decided to participate.

That has been the message constantly repeated by the government. Shwe Mann, as acting chairman of the USDP, has issued orders that everything in these elections must be above board. At a special meeting of the USDP in January, he warned that there was no place in the party for members who "bully the people, are arrogant, behave in an unpleasant way, show little thought for other people, breach party discipline, and hinder and disturb the inner party's democratisation".

But not everyone has taken this message to heart. The main USDP leaders _ most of whom are not ministers in the current government but are close to the old junta supremo Than Shwe _ plan to wage war against the NLD.

Nothing is going to be left to chance, according to the election strategy paper. Bribery, vote-buying, intimidation and fraud are all part of the scheme to win the parliamentary seats up for grabs on April Fools' Day. The strategy involves plans for the character assassination of NLD candidates, bribery and vote-fixing.

These USDP leaders understand that their future _ though not necessarily that of the government _ is intimately tied up with the current parliamentary by-elections. They cannot afford to lose. A rebuff at these polls will signal the end of the party as it is currently organised, and the hardline leaders are likely to be cast aside afterwards.

Aung Thaung, the former industry minister and close confidante of Senior General Than Shwe, is a well-known hardliner opposed to Thein Sein's reform agenda. And it is he who is in charge of the USDP campaign _ as he was in 2010, then at Than Shwe's behest.

The country's continued security, peace and development depend on the USDP winning these elections, according to Aung Thaung. Campaigning cannot be just verbal, but must be combined with practical benefits _ for the voters. The main issue is the "stomach", the USDP strategy stresses. This involves building and repairing roads, providing schools and medical centres, and promising jobs as incentives to vote for the USDP. So-called "election-winning committees" have been formed in all regions, states, divisions, townships, wards and village tracts. Special improvement committees have been formed to carry out development tasks _ each with seed money of five million kyat (187,500 baht) per township. Increased funds will be provided if necessary, the organisers of the campaign plans promised. And there is no shortage of funds. Hundreds of former government properties have been sold off in the past few months to raise the necessary financial resources to fight the by-elections.

Already the campaign strategy is being carried out. All along the main road in Mrs Suu Kyi's constituency there are big colourful billboards proclaiming to voters that the roads are being repaired by the USDP. In many places throughout the country the USDP is taking credit for infrastructure projects, medical centres and schools built by the government.

The NLD says it is concerned with this obvious electoral manipulation. At a recent press conference in Yangon party spokesman Nyan Win complained that USDP candidates were promising voters upgraded infrastructure and electricity supply. The NLD questioned the source of the USDP's funding to meet these promises. "Giving such promises is tantamount to buying votes and applying undue influence," Nyan Win said.

Part of the USDP's campaign involves studying the NLD candidates' "bio data, exposing their weaknesses and cleverly informing the voters", according to the election strategy document. Though this is written in a rather opaque style, its intention is clear: blacken the character of NLD candidates and create a general atmosphere of fear.

While campaigning in the Dawei industrial zone area in southern Myanmar last month, the former fisheries minister and USDP central executive member Maung Maung Thein, who has substantial business interests in the region, warned residents that if they did not vote for the USDP they would lose their jobs.

The strategy paper clearly spells out that, as a last resort, the election result cannot be left to chance. If all else fails, the plan is to manipulate the actual vote, according to the confidential instruction to the USDP's regional and provisional bosses. "Pressure must be applied on the polling stations where the USDP candidates were defeated in the 2010 poll," it says. "Polling officers and polling booth attendants must be befriended and won over. Assistance must be given to them to meet their economic and social needs."

While indirect in its instructions, the intention to rig the polls as far as possible is clearly evident.

The last elections were an absolute travesty, with ballot boxes stuffed with votes that were claimed to be advance votes _ from absentee electors and voters residing abroad. Already there are fears the same thing will happen again.

The current fisheries minister _ who is close to Maung Maung Thein _ has sanctioned a 90-day fishing trawl for vessels in the area, totalling some 3,000 boats with a total crew of nearly 100,000. This was done simply to allow them to vote in advance _ votes which very likely would be used to manipulate the result.

"The international community needs to monitor the complete campaign process, to ensure that all candidates can campaign without undue obstructions," said a Western diplomat based in Yangon. "And the conduct of advance voting _ an enormous problem last time _ will be another critical area of focus."

With no international election monitors allowed to observe the polls, it may be difficult to accept the results as legitimate if the NLD does not win a significant proportion of the seats. But the USDP hardliners may have overlooked and misjudged another key factor at these elections _ the army. The military hates the USDP and is now independent of the party. "Aung San Suu Kyi can count on the army," said a senior army officer.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/283538/ruling-party-hardliners-seek-to-win-poll-at-any-cost