It is too soon to celebrate Burma's fragile democracy

Thein Sein may be making all the right noises, but huge problems such as violence and corruption still threaten reform 

BySimon Tisdall, guardian.co.uk, Thursday 22 March 2012 ... 

'Despite Thein Sein's reconciliation pledges, the Burmese army remains engaged in a vicious war with Kachin separatists in the north.' Photograph: Jason Reed/Reuters

The military-backed regime's decision to allow international observers to monitor next week's byelections is cited as further evidence that spring has sprung in Burma after decades of political repression and abuse. But plenty of reasons for caution remain. As Aung San Suu Kyi, the main opposition leader and election candidate, noted recently: "Many people are beginning to say the democratisation process here is irreversible. It's not."

The byelections, for 48 vacant parliamentary seats, follow moves to allow Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) back into politics, the release of hundreds of political prisoners, the relaxation of some media controls and attempts to end Burma's numerous ethnic conflicts. If the polls are judged free and fair, there is a chance the EU and the US may relax sanctions. Hillary Clinton and William Hague promised as much during groundbreaking visits this year.

After many years of dictatorship – Burma last held free elections in 1990, when the NLD's victory was annulled by the military junta – it would be unrealistic to expect an overnight transformation. Yet since taking over the presidency last year, Thein Sein, a former junta member, has been making all the right noises. Addressing parliament this month, he stressed the need to strengthen the rule of law, open up the economy and develop national infrastructure.

Many mistakes had been made, he said. "Our people suffered under various governments and different systems and the people will judge our government based on its actual achievements … It is necessary that we help to end the misunderstanding and mistrust between ethnic groups and the government." Significantly, he denied the existence of rival hardliner and reformist factions within the regime.

Onlookers demurred. "In fact, many senior officials [say] the government is deeply divided," Irrawaddy, an independent news magazine, commented after the speech. "Increasingly, conservative elements, including many former generals, are nervous about the resurgence of the democratic opposition … Sidelining Thein Sein and his relatively small group of fellow reformers would not be difficult, particularly considering that he is already 67 and has ruled out any political role beyond the next election in 2015."

Sceptics inside and outside Burma suggest the reforms are cynical window-dressing designed to end Burma's economic isolation and rehabilitate the regime within Asean and internationally. On this reading, Thein Sein is a useful but disposable frontman whose health may have a critical bearing on Burma's future. Commentator Min Zin pointed out that the president suffered from heart disease and recently received a new pacemaker.

The regime's chief astrologer had predicted Thein Sein would get sick this summer, Min Zin said. Such omens are taken very seriously in Burma. If the president's grip on power weakened for whatever reason, "past experience suggests we are likely to see the rise of hardliners and an intense power rivalry … If the death of a key player complicates Burma's fragile political transition, a number of scenarios are possible: splits or purges, the emergence of a new autocrat, military intervention or a popular uprising … These scenarios are not mutually exclusive."

It is easy to expand upon such pessimistic prognostications. Despite Thein Sein's reconciliation pledges, the Burmese army remains engaged in a vicious war with Kachin separatists in the north. Human Rights Watch said that soldiers had fired on civilians, raped women and forced children into the frontline during an ongoing offensive. Clashes with other ethnic minority militias have also been reported in areas where NGO and media access remains restricted.

The election campaign has not been free of violence, either. The NLD said its supporters were attacked during a rally in the capital, Naypyidaw, last week. It accused the ruling party, the Union Solidarity and Development party, of vote-buying and using scare tactics to convince the Chinese business community and other minorities that the NLD was the creature of the US and western powers. Aung San Suu Kyi has since been busily reaching out to ethnic groups.

The decision to admit election observers is not an unmitigated blessing. Most, including those from the US and Britain, will have little time to find their bearings. Widespread irregularities were already occurring, an NLD spokesman said. "I don't know how international observers can catch this fraud when they arrive in Burma two or three days before election day," he said. By turning up and being bamboozled, the monitors might unwittingly provide cover for regime fraud.

Corruption remains rife; the new media law retains curbs on press freedom; legislation on the right to peaceful assembly is flawed; the constitution guarantees perpetual, behind-the-scenes military control: these and other complaints, all based in fact, add to concerns that forward momentum may falter. Aung San Suu Kyi is being warned, meanwhile, that by standing in the byelections she is legitimising a fundamentally illegitimate process and will pay a heavy political price.

"Too much co-operation could tarnish her image as a democratic icon … Assuming she is permitted to win, she will no longer be the sainted keeper of the flame of Burma's democratic aspirations but an active participant in the rough and tumble world of real-life politics … Will she disappoint? To some extent, it seems inevitable that she will."

All these understandable and justified objections notwithstanding, it is worth remembering that the change in Burma's political circumstances in the space of less 12 months has been extraordinary, unanticipated and overwhelmingly positive. Unlike the Arab spring, this Asian revolution has been unseasonably peaceful so far. There are many reasons why reform could fail. There is no reason on earth why it should be allowed to do so.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/mar/22/burma-fragile-democracy-thein-sein