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Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Nuts-and-bolts test awaits Suu Kyi

Myanmar's democracy icon now has to come up with solutions to her country's problems By Thomas Fuller

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Aung San Suu Kyi’s return to Mandalay after campaigning in northern Mynamar earlier this month was like a political Woodstock. AFP pic
WAH Thi Ka is a dust-choked village without electricity or running water, where no one has a laptop, where no one uses Facebook or email and where sick residents sometimes die on their way to the nearest hospital because it is too far down a deeply rutted dirt road.

It is also ground zero for a new and risky chapter in the life of Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Myanmar's democracy movement, who is transforming herself from dissident to stump politician campaigning for a seat in Parliament.

A global champion of democracy who won the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize but spent the better part of two decades under house arrest, Suu Kyi is establishing residency here for elections on April 1. Villagers in this once obscure backwater sound as if they had won the lottery.

"I cannot describe how happy I was when I heard the news," said U Kyaw Win Sein, a rice farmer in Wah Thi Ka who is helping organise the campaign.

"Some people say if we can only have the chance to see Mother Suu in person we will be satisfied; we can die in peace."

It is difficult to overstate Suu Kyi's popularity in Myanmar. A gathering of her supporters in Mandalay during the first weekend of this month resembled a political Woodstock, with tens of thousands of people clogging the streets to greet her motorcade and cramming themselves into a field where she spoke.

Yet by inserting herself into the cut and thrust of Myanmar politics, Suu Kyi is placing some of her hard-fought prestige on the line.

Increasingly, she is being asked to propose solutions to her country's woes rather than merely lament them. Suu Kyi is a consummate intellectual who spent the first decades of her life hopping across the globe.

Being elected to Parliament -- assuming she wins -- will be a nuts-and-bolts test of whether she can help bring prosperity to a constituency that gets its water by pulling buckets out of a well.

"There's an element of gamble and risk for her," said Thant Myint-U, the author of several books on Myanmar.

"Once she's won, and pretty much everybody assumes she'll win, things will be very different," he said.

"She will have to deal with a range of issues, from the government's fiscal policies to healthcare reform to responding to demands from her constituency for electricity, cheaper phones and more jobs."

The transition from critic to policymaker has been a tricky turning point for dissidents in other countries.

Her career could follow the trajectory of Vaclav Havel, who after his rise as an intellectual and activist against communist rule was twice elected president of the Czech Republic.
Or she could slump like Lech Walesa, the hard-charging hero of the Solidarity labour movement in the waning days of Polish communism, who alienated allies and voters, flirting with single-digit percentages in opinion polls during his one-term presidency.
One factor for Suu Kyi, 66, is her health.

The relentless election campaign is taking its toll. She fell ill during the trip to Mandalay, cut short a speech and was put on a drip by her doctors.

During the campaign, she has spoken about the need for more jobs, better healthcare and education.

She emphasises the importance of achieving unity among the country’s many ethnic minorities.

But on most issues, Suu Kyi rarely delves into specifics. She jokes in speeches that she does not like to make promises.

The constituency where Suu Kyi is running is a two-hour drive south of Yangon, the country’s main city, and is not as underdeveloped as other parts of the country.
But as in most areas, it remains without a sewage system, paved roads or cell phone reception.

Residents power light bulbs with car batteries, though there are few cars in sight.
Years of mismanagement by a corrupt and inept military leadership have left Myanmar without a functioning banking and finance system.

By entering politics at this delicate stage, Suu Kyi is imparting legitimacy on a government run by the same generals, now retired, whom she battled for two decades.
If the reform underway in Myanmar falters, Suu Kyi could be held partly responsible, analysts say.

Even if her party, the National League for Democracy, does well in the April 1 elections, her power in Parliament — numerically, at least — will be slight.
The 48 constituencies in contention are just a fraction of the more than 600 seats in Parliament.

“At most she’ll end up with a few dozen seats,” Thant Myint-U said.
Her party’s main challenger is the Union Solidarity and Development Party, a proxy party for the former military junta.

But there are also signs of fracture and disaffection within her wider democracy movement.
“I respect her. I like her. But she isn’t the leader of all other democratic forces,” said U Kaung Myint Htut, a candidate running against Suu Kyi’s party.

Bertil Lintner, one of Suu Kyi’s biographers, predicted future fissures as her party entered the political system.

“As long as they were suppressed and almost banned, they remained united,” he said.
“Once the pressure comes off, all sorts of conflicts and contradictions will come to the surface.”

Whatever bickering exists, it does not seem to be diminishing Suu Kyi’s standing among voters.

“I am the head of the village, so it’s hard for me to say this directly,” said U Khin Tint, a local official in her constituency.

“But I don’t see any competition.” 

NYT

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