Is Shwe Mann Trying to Steal Thein Sein's Reform Mantle?

By NYEIN NYEIN / THE IRRAWADDY Friday, March 16, 2012  ... 

Lower House Speaker Thura Shwe Mann, a former general who ranked third in the junta that ruled Burma until last year, appears to be chafing under the administration of President Thein Sein. In February, the two publicly disagreed over the pace of reforms, raising questions about whether Thein Sein—who was only the sixth most powerful of the former ruling generals—is capable of remaining in charge of Burma's tricky transition to a less autocratic form of governance.

Lower House Speaker Shwe Mann speaks during a meeting of the Burmese Parliament in Naypyidaw. (Photo: Irrawaddy)

Interestingly, however, Shwe Mann is not regarded as a hardliner opposed to the reforms initiated by Thein Sein, who morphed from prime minister of the old regime to president of the new quasi-civilian government almost one year ago. In fact, he seems intent on outdoing Thein Sein at his own game, pushing for further reforms while chastising his one-time underling for being too “sluggish” in his efforts to remake the country.

In early February, he proposed raising the salaries of civil servants, something he said was necessary to achieve Thein Sein's goal of reducing corruption among officials. But Finance and Revenue Minister Hla Tun—presumably with Thein Sein's approval—argued against the idea, saying that it would only increase the deficit and fuel inflation.

Despite this rebuff, however, Shwe Mann continued to push for a pay increase for public employees with the overwhelming support of legislators. It was subsequently approved by the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, or Union Parliament, which combines both houses of the national legislature.

On March 2, in a nationally television speech to mark his first year in power, Thein Sein sought to assert control over the debate by saying that the proposed pay hike would have to wait. This came after a Feb. 22 press conference by Shwe Mann criticizing the government for the slow pace of change under Thein Sein's leadership.

Given the difference in the two men's character—Thein Sein is seen as a conciliatory figure, while Shwe Mann is known for his determination—most bets were on the speaker to ultimately prevail in this increasingly open battle of wills.

“The Union Parliament has already approved the proposal, and so now it is up to Thein Sein to decide whether to implement it or not. I'm sure Shwe Mann will use the full extent of his legislative power to make that happen,” said Sai Sao Si, a Lower House MP from the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party, speaking to The Irrawaddy last week.

Finally, on March 14, the government announced what appears to have been compromise between the two sides: salaried public servants would receive a 30,000 kyat (US $38) monthly cost-of-living allowance, and day wages for contract workers would increase from 1,100 kyat to 2,100 kyat ($1.40-2.70).
  
This fell far short of the minimum 100,000 kyat ($125) per month that Shwe Mann and his supporters advocated, but also represented a significant concession by Thein Sein, who had repeatedly argued against any additional spending on wages for public sector workers.

Even as this particular battle appears to have ended in a truce, however, it remains difficult to know what lies behind this latest sign of internal division among Burma's senior leadership. For some, it was a simple matter of Shwe Mann wanting to close the gap between the salaries of administration officials and rank-and-file members of the government, including legislators. But others found it much harder to explain.

“Both the proposal to raise salaries and opposition to this proposal are coming from within the same party, so it's difficult to know what's going on,” said Kyi Myint, a Lower House opposition MP, noting that Shwe Mann and Thein Sein are both key members of the ruling military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).

Some observers have suggested that the dispute has been all for show, to give a semblance of genuine debate to a political process that remains far from transparent. But even Win Tin, a senior member of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) and one of the keenest skeptics of the former generals' motives, said he believes that the discord is both real and worrying.

“This is a dangerous situation for the country,” he told The Irrawaddy in February. “Until recently, I only thought we would see the emergence of two groups ruling the country—the army and ex-army officials.

Now we see [the ex-army officials] are split among themselves.”
The same day that he blasted Thein Sein for dragging his feet on reforms, Shwe Mann departed for a four-day diplomatic visit to China—his third major overseas trip in his new capacity (he traveled to Russia last June and India at the end of last year) and a signal, perhaps, that he felt secure in his current position despite his repeated challenges to Thein Sein's authority.

After his return to Burma, the two leaders reportedly met privately to discuss the disagreement between them. Whatever the outcome of this meeting, however, the issue of the civil service pay rise remained on the agenda. In the first week of March, Minister of Industrial Development Maj-Gen Thein Htay said that Chinese-financed projects would not be cut back because they did not affect the national budget. He made these remarks in the context of calls by MPs to cut funding for large-scale projects so that the government could increase public sector salaries.

Beyond this signature issue, however, MPs say that Shwe Mann has also made his mark in other ways.
“To be honest, as a representative of an ethnic party, I expected him to be difficult to work with,” said  Sai Sao Si. “But after one year, we can clearly see that he is not only working in the interests of the USDP. He has shown goodwill toward all parties, and gets things done in a cool, rational manner.”

This attitude has won over most MPs, said Sai Sao Si, who claimed that most of his fellow legislators regard Shwe Man as an independent, reform-minded leader.

But while his stature within Parliament has steadily risen, some believe that Shwe Mann risks falling foul of the military, which remains the single most important force in Burmese politics. In an interview with Agence France Presse on Jan. 16, however, he said that he didn't think there was any danger of the armed forces taking control again.

“I don’t think it will happen in the future. We really understand the situation of the people and the country,” he said. “There is no other way than a democratic system.”

It seems, at any rate, that Shwe Mann has staked his own future on Burma's slow opening to the outside world. Indeed, his message of reform seems directed largely at an international audience. During his Feb. 22 press conference, for instance, he told reporters that the domestic media had been prevented from quoting his remarks in Parliament in full.

“I told [MPs] to have courage and speak out bravely, but in the news, the word ‘brave’ was removed,” he said, suggesting that Burma's highest authorities may be afraid of his calls for bold action.

But not everyone is convinced by Shwe Mann's efforts to portray himself as an outsider. Rather, he seems to be positioning himself for a prominent role in the new system, courting not only foreign governments and the international media, but also opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who he invited to visit Parliament on Monday.

Ultimately, say some observers, his pitch is directed at voters, who will go to the polls again in 2015. By that time, Thein Sein will be out of the picture and a new rivalry could emerge, pitting Shwe Mann the can-do “reformist” against Suu Kyi the charismatic standard-bearer of democracy.

Given the uphill struggle that awaits Suu Kyi when she enters Parliament and the political muscle that Shwe Mann has already acquired, it's anybody's guess who will prevail if their relationship develops into yet another struggle for control over the direction of Burmese reforms.

http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=23227