Canada is a latecomer in changing Burma

By Mitchell Wigdor, Published On Mon Mar 12 2012   ... 

Foreign Minister John Baird spent less than a day in Burma last week. He brought books on democratic reform to President Thein Sein, a retired general, and conferred honorary citizenship on Aung San Suu Kyi.

Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and Foreign Minister John Baird exit Suu Kyi's home after their meeting in Yangon March 8, 2012. Credit: Soe Zeya Tun/Reuters

It is not clear what he learned other than that there may be dead people on the voters list for the upcoming legislative by-elections. The visit was meant to be symbolic — after so many other dignitaries had visited, Canada arrived late.

A picture is emerging of a rapidly, and possibly irrevocably, changing Burma. The West tends to think that it has only begun to open but the gates parted slightly last March when Thein Sein assumed the presidency from strongman Than Shwe. Since then, investors have been flooding in, particularly from Asia. A bank consultant friend from Kuala Lumpur has travelled to Rangoon three times in the past months, having not visited for 15 years.

Another friend, a lawyer in Bangkok, is working on eight Burmese transactions. At the end of February, the American Chamber of Commerce in Bangkok presented a “Doing Business in Burma” seminar, at which Rangoon-based American diplomats spoke to an overflow crowd. European suits ride the elevators at Rangoon’s premier business hotel, if they can get a room.

The April 1 by-elections are a litmus test. Campaigning and press coverage appear unfettered so far. Min Ko Naing, recently freed leader of the 88 Generation movement and likely second most popular opposition figure, is campaigning openly but not running. Barring the unexpected, Aung San Suu Kyi and many of her fellow National League for Democracy candidates will win, take their legislative seats and participate in the government of their country. Maybe there are dead people on the voters list. Possibly, nefarious forces are at work. More likely, in an impoverished country that has not conducted a census in more than 50 years, the government simply has no firm idea of who lives where. The key will be whether the opposition parties consider the elections to have been fairly, not perfectly, conducted. Assuming they are, what then?

Two separate, but related, deals are apparent. The first was made between the new and previous government. President Thein Sein is personally well respected. Businesspeople refer to him as “squeaky clean.” His mandate is to clean up the government and modernize the economy. Personal integrity cloaks him with the authority both to stand against future corruption and to resist the pressure to prosecute those responsible for past misfeasance. This will not be easy. The visceral anger is deep among the vast majority who have suffered over the past 50 years of corruption and brutality. They want to see the guilty punished.
Keeping a lid on social unrest will depend on the government’s ability to fulfill the second deal, which is in the process of being made between the government and the people. If bygones are to be bygones, the economic prospects of ordinary Burmese must be raised. Political engagement must be matched with greater prosperity. While the current piecemeal reforms are a start, they are no substitute for an underlying comprehensive economic strategy. Unfortunately, there is too much talk of relying on cheap labour. Such hopes are misguided. Inexpensive, unskilled manpower is not the draw it once was. It may provide a short-term fix, but industrialization requires a constantly better educated, technology savvy, increasingly productive workforce, not sweatshops.

What should Canada do?

Our sanctions are the world’s toughest. Assuming the elections meet expectations, the sanctions should be immediately softened to allow, at minimum, the provision of technical assistance to the government and private sector aimed at developing the policies and the capabilities that will create an environment in which growth can occur. Canadian strengths match Burmese needs.

In the public sector, Canada can offer guidance in institution-building, federalism and restoring the rule of law, while in the private sector the Burmese need expertise in oil and gas, mining, transportation, telecommunications, financial services and information technology.

Concurrently, Canada should be determining for itself whether its best interests as well as those of the Burmese are being served by maintaining the current trade and investment prohibitions.

There is no upside to seeing the Thein Sein government fail in its reform efforts or in pushing it further into welcoming Chinese arms. Burma will not soon achieve a democratic ideal, but neither do many of Canada’s trading partners. It should be held to the same standard. By taking immediate steps, Canada can contribute to Burma’s success, build goodwill and allow Canadian business to pursue more effectively future opportunities in Burma. Canada must decide whether acting now will increase the chances of enduring political and economic transformation. Or it can wait and see what others do, in which case what Canada does will not matter — it will arrive late.

Mitchell Wigdor is a Toronto-based lawyer who has travelled frequently to Southeast Asia since 1984. He is author of the forthcoming No Miracle: What Asia Can Teach All Countries About Growth.

 http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1145003--canada-is-a-latecomer-in-changing-burma