Battle looms to hold on to cheap labour

Bangkokpost, March 12, 2012 - 'Asean chief warns firms of labour shortage", reads a headline in the Bangkok Post on Saturday. The story says the secretary-general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Surin Pitsuwan, is worried about the opening up of Myanmar which could compel its migrant citizens working in factories, trawlers, houses and the like overseas to return to their country.

"A lot of Thai businesses that have relied heavily on Myanmar labourers could be in trouble," he says, urging labour-intensive industries to adopt new technology to make the industrial sector more competitive.

Is Mr Surin over-reacting to what we can expect to happen to this country, as Thailand and the other nine Southeast Asian countries move towards becoming one family in the Asean Community in 2015?

If that is the case, at least the Asean chief is not alone.

Some Thai agencies and academics share his concern, one of the more notable ones being the National Economic and Social Development Board.

They are on the same wavelength now.

This country relies on more than a million Myanmar workers, both legal and illegal. Most have fled the fighting and hardship in their country by braving the hazardous crossing into Thailand. Myanmar's economic stagnation under the military regime had given them no hope of job prospects. Brutality by the soldiers against ethnic minority groups made the situation even worse.

They left home to work at whatever job openings were available, including the most menial tasks imaginable, in Thailand _ from Bangkok to Phuket, Koh Samui, Pattani and Samut Sakhon _ in order to send money back to their families in Myanmar.

That was before the wind of change unexpectedly blew into Thailand's western neighbour.
Suddenly, Myanmar had an election, a civilian government has replaced the junta which had a firm grip on the country for decades, creating a magnet for potential foreign investors including from Thailand.

Democracy icon and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is also on the way to becoming an MP in the April 1 by-elections, a significant point not lost on investors.

Once the country has a future, Thailand probably will no longer be a haven for those workers from Myanmar anymore. That's a distinct possibility.

Mr Surin is right to warn Thai industrialists. But what he fears could even come before the Asean Community takes effect in the next three years. A test case will be the Dawei project in southern Myanmar. It is not simply a project; it is a megaproject as far as the leaders in Myanmar are concerned.

This project could entice sizeable numbers of Myanmar workers to return to their country. Given its magnitude, including almost every kind of heavy industrial development, a deep-sea port, petrochemical plants and untold factories, it will require a massive workforce for the construction phase and the completed projects.

Thus far there is no question about the future of the project. Even Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra singled it out in her speech to Japanese investors during her visit to Tokyo on Wednesday as she was trying to convince them to tap the advantages of the Thailand-backed project.

It will benefit Myanmar and in the process create a labour problem in Thailand given that Myanmar dominates the alien workforce here. Many Myanmar workers may decide to stay on in Thailand because of its better infrastructure system, including public health and education, but others might prefer to work at home than in a foreign country away from their families.

Whatever the choice, Thailand, as Mr Surin says, cannot afford to be complacent any more. This county can bring in more workers from Laos and Cambodia to replace those from Myanmar. But that definitely is not the answer to the future problem. It cannot depend on unskilled and semi-skilled workers to drive its economy as all immediate neighbours except Malaysia will offer investors a cheaper labour cost. The government and the private sector need to give serious thought to spending more money on innovations and R&D to move the Thai economy to another level to ensure their survival.

Hopefully, the Dawei project will be the wake-up call they need. There have been portentous signs in the past but only a few industries and governments took them seriously.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/283932/battle-looms-to-hold-on-to-cheap-labour