1:06 PM
Waa Haa Haa
Myanmar's reform process is in the balance as
the hardliners and liberals in government are locked in a bitter power
struggle. Change in Myanmar remains fragile, despite encouraging signs
and growing goodwill towards President Thein Sein internationally. So
far there have been a lot of good intentions, but this has only produced
limited practical change, according to analysts.
The case of the release of political prisoners highlights the bitter battle being waged behind the scenes. Government ministers, advisers and even the president himself had promised the international community that the political prisoners would be freed as soon as possible. The speaker of the lower house, Shwe Mann, hinted to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on her visit to Myanmar last December that they should all be free before the end of the year.
Now many have been freed, including the high-profile activists from the 88 Generation students' group, Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi; the Shan political leader Khun Htun Oo; the Buddhist monk Gambira, and the former prime minister and intelligence chief, Khin Nyunt. But many still remain in prison as the power struggle at the top of the regime intensifies in the lead-up to the forthcoming by-elections in April.
Before their release on Jan 13, there had been hints that most of the political prisoners would be freed on Jan 4 (Independence Day) and Feb 12 (Union Day). But when only a handful of political prisoners were let out and the sentences of other prisoners reduced, there was widespread dismay amongst the liberal circles in Myanmar. President Thein Sein appeared to have been cowed again by the hardliners.
Aung Min, the railways minister who has been leading the peace process and ceasefire talks with many of the rebel ethnic groups, was visibly depressed by the fresh holdup, according to one of his close personnel friends. Speaker Shwe Mann virtually made a public apology.
The fate of the political prisoners is a microcosm of the broader power struggle that continues to dog the reform process. Although the president is the one who finally decides who will be released and when, he is constantly walking a tight-rope, trying to build a consensus around his "gentleman's agenda" and not provoke the hardliners in his cabinet.
A precarious game in Nay Pyi Daw: Reform-minded President Thein Sein,
far left, is being obstructed every step of the way by hardliners led
by Vice President Tin Aung Myint Oo.The country's leading hardliner, Tin Aung Myint Oo, strongly disagreed with releasing political prisoners before the April 1 by-elections, saying they could disrupt the poll. Apparently the former second most powerful general, Maung Aye, has been constantly campaigning behind the scenes to prevent the political activists, including Khin Nyunt and his military intelligence officers, from being freed.
Shwe Mann _ the third top military man in the old regime _ has been at the forefront of trying to get the political prisoners released as soon as possible. At the meeting, he argued that if the government did not keep its promise to free them, then Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) might decide not to contest the by-elections.
Interior Minister Ko Ko, another former general, supported the immediate release of the prisoners. Some of the others suggested it was important not to release political prisoners, especially Min Ko Naing and the other 88 Generation leaders, until at least after all the candidates for the by-elections had officially registered.
The hardliners' greatest fear is that the 88 group would form a party and run in the elections. So, in the face of this strident opposition, the president dithered. In the end only a handful of activists were released for Independence Day; though two weeks later a significant batch of high-profile detainees including the hardliners' bete noire, the 88 student leaders and Khin Nyunt, were freed.
The president's apparent volte-face was brought about by the reformers' successful peace talks with the ethnic minorities, especially the Karen National Union (KNU). This emboldened Thein Sein and gave him room to manoeuvre. On Jan 12, immediately after the KNU signed the truce with the Myanmar government delegation led by Railways Minister Aung Min, the latter rang Thein Sein, according to sources at the meeting. This was what the president was waiting for; four hours later he announced the major prisoner release and signed off on freeing most of the high-profile prisoners.
That's how fragile the situation is, stressed sources in the Myanmar government. The hardliners have been dogging the president and the liberals all along the way, making it as hard as possible for the reform process to proceed unhindered. They have been pushing for the prisoner release to be delayed until after the by-elections _ or at least to keep the 88 Generation student leaders and Khin Nyunt detained until after the registration of candidates. They were in fact freed shortly before that.
The favourite method of the hardliners is to mention the former military supremo Than Shwe, who is officially retired and now lives in a mansion not far from the president's palace. The hardliners, especially Aung Thaung, the former industry minister and now a leading member of the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), constantly claim that the "old man" would be upset by a massive prisoner release, thereby hoping to dissuade the president from speeding up the process. These old reactionaries from the former regime, who were close the old man before and still see him occasionally, are at the forefront of the battle to limit reform.
Everything is being tossed into the arena in this silent, dirty war. The hardliners are using every hiccup and problem to hound the liberals. The failure of the peace talks with the Kachin is strengthening the hardliners' hand. Now they are waiting for social unrest and possible political demonstrations to use against Thein Sein and his liberal supporters as a pretext to attack the government's recent release of political prisoners _ behind the scenes, of course.
For the moment there is something of an impasse, at least until the by-elections on April Fools' Day. The result of these elections may then determine the pace and extent of reform in the future. Some 20% of ministers are liberal and 20% are hardline, with 60% sitting on the fence waiting to see who wins, the railways minister told foreign diplomats recently.
It is a precarious game the liberals are playing, according to officials close to them. "If we lose we'll end up in jail." one of them confided.
Larry Jagan is a former BBC regional correspondent based in Bangkok who extensively covers Myanmar issues.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/278587/bitter-struggle-puts-reform-process-at-risk
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