Real test for Myanmar is after the election

Bangkokpost, April 1th, 2012:   Today people in 45 political constituencies in Myanmar will go to the polls to elect their parliamentary representatives, and almost certainly one of these will be Aung San Suu Kyi, representing Kawhmu township in Yangon region for the National League for Democracy (NLD).

Her overwhelming personal popularity and the fact that the government desperately needs the legitimacy Mrs Suu Kyi will make an upset almost unimaginable. But while the candidacy of the democracy icon has unsurprisingly dominated media coverage, there are other issues today's by-elections may shed light on.

For starters, the by-elections will be a good test of the overall strength of the NLD across the country. The NLD hopes to win more than 30 of the contested seats, but it will be particularly interesting to see how much support the party has in ethnic areas. A report in today's Spectrum notes that in Shan state ethnic candidates stand a good chance of gaining victory over their NLD counterparts. Voting in three constituencies in northern Kachin state has been postponed because of security considerations.

Today's by-elections will also be a test of the willingness of the government to allow free and fair elections and also its power to ensure them at the local level. Obviously, the ability of the by-elections to provide a marker for the NLD depends on their fairness. NLD candidates in rural areas have complained that they are being followed and intimidated.
Responding to reports of irregularities, Myanmar President Thein Sein acknowledged recently that there had been ''unnecessary errors'', adding that the authorities were trying to ensure the by-elections will be free and fair. But Mrs Suu Kyi on Friday warned that the by-elections would not be completely democratic.

''I don't think we can consider it a genuine free and fair election if we consider what has been happening here over the last few months,'' she said. The comments are indicative of the caution against over-exuberance she has been careful to inject in recent months, along with many others, including a number of Myanmar pro-democracy exiles. As Mrs Suu Kyi has said, the by-elections are ''a step towards step one in democracy''.

While there is real cause for hope, the hard work lies ahead and it is much too soon to know if the military-backed government will allow it to take place. Perhaps the most crucial test for the government is whether it begins on a path of reconciliation with armed ethnic groups and works for inclusion of the country's diverse ethnic population, comprising approximately 135 distinct groups and around 40% of the population.

It is expected that on the top of Mrs Suu Kyi's agenda when she reaches parliament will be an attempt to amend the constitution, which now guarantees that 25% of parliamentary seats be reserved for serving military officers. By some estimates, the military and the military-backed parties control about 84% of parliamentary seats. The 45 seats up for grabs today amount to about 10% of the lower house of parliament.

There has been a lot of debate on whether sanctions in place by Western governments should be lifted at this time. The revival of Myanmar is being fed by the tremendous desire from both inside and outside the country to see it open up at long last and its people enjoy the benefits of a free society. But make no mistake, it is also being fed by a tremendous desire inside and outside the country to take advantage of Myanmar's rich natural resources.

This isn't necessarily a bad thing, if they are developed in an environmentally responsible way and the general population shares in the wealth they provide. But it would be a real shame if Myanmar's abundant natural resources were exploited only for the purpose of enriching a small number of people. History shows that this has been the rule rather than the exception in the developing world.

In fact in several countries a richness of resources has been a curse rather than a blessing. The blame for this falls not just on self-serving non-democratic governments, but also on multinational companies which are looking only at the bottom line.

In order to avoid that path Myanmar needs to have a truly functioning democracy in which the participation of local and ethnic groups is guaranteed from the start of any large-scale projects. As Mrs Suu Kyi said recently, countries that wish to see democracy and a free market in Myanmar should not lift sanctions too soon. There should be no rush to development until the basic institutions of participatory democracy are in place.

 http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/286913/real-test-for-myanmar-is-after-the-election