The Military's Still in Charge

Why reform in Burma is only skin-deep.   
BY BERTIL LINTNER | JULY 9, 2013    



Since ex-general Thein Sein assumed the presidency in March 2011, foreign observers have generally appeared optimistic that Burma is on its way toward some kind of liberal democracy.
The only snag seems to be the ongoing conflict with ethnic rebels in Kachin, Burma's northernmost state, which has been explained as local commanders acting with "an unusual degree of autonomy." Either that, or people question the president's ability to control the military during the country's democratic reform. Some foreign analysts have argued, however, that the outside world needs to support Thein Sein's "reformist" government against so-called "military hardliners."

According to this narrative, neither Thein Sein nor the military are held responsible for the brutal suppression of the Kachins, which has not come to an end despite a tentative peace agreement reached in the state capital of Myitkyina in May 2013. In fact, the two sides only agreed to undertake efforts to achieve "de-escalation and cessation of hostilities" and "to hold a political dialogue." No firm commitments were made concerning when and where such talks would take place.

This decades-long civil war reached its height in January 2013 with the inclusion of massive artillery barrages supported by airstrikes from helicopter gunships and fighter jets. It defies logic that such a large-scale offensive could have been launched by some local commanders or, as the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies claims, that "a minority of the military" is acting "as a spoiler" to the democratization process. This assessment reflects a lack of understanding of the Burmese military's command structure as well as of its relationship with Thein Sein's government.

It is too often forgotten that Thein Sein came to power through the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), the name for Burma's military regime. The SPDC seized power in 1988 and was officially dissolved in March 2011 when Thein Sein assumed the presidency. Thein Sein was heavily involved with the junta government. His positions included general of the Burmese army, first secretary of SPDC, and later prime minister (a position he held up until he became president).

At no stage in his career did Thein Sein display any political independence or initiative. He was a loyal soldier, hand-picked by then-SPDC chairman and prime minister, Than Shwe. Thein Sein always said and did what he was told.

For instance, in the summer of 2010, while serving as prime minister, Thein Sein received a delegation from North Korea. He was quoted praising the military advancements of the Korean people under Kim Jong Il and advocating the strengthening of the countries' friendship. In those days, Burma was not shy to admit its friendly relations with North Korea.

The cooperation continues today, only in secret. A Burmese businessman who recently met Thein Sein in private described him as "indecisive, just repeating what's been said in official announcements, saying what he has been told to say."

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/07/09/the_militarys_still_in_charge?page=0%2C